ESPN has published a lovely feature about the army of number crunchers, drone operators and hype video editors working behind the scenes to give the USMNT an edge at the 2026 World Cup. As someone who has dedicated her entire professional life to sports analytics, I want to say something from the bottom of my heart: I have never been more embarrassed for my field.

Don't misunderstand me. I love data. Data is my religion, my personality, and roughly 60% of the reason I still have friends. But there is a difference between using data to find marginal gains and using data as a press release. And I ran the numbers. You won't like them.

Let's start with the big one. Stat 1: Host nations at the World Cup have an average finishing position of 8.2 since 1990. That includes South Korea's absurd semi-final run in 2002, South Africa's group stage exit in 2010, Brazil's 7-1 meltdown in 2014, Russia's quarter-final in 2018, and Qatar's historically dismal group stage in 2022. The range is enormous. You know what the common thread is among the ones who did well? They had good players. Not good drone footage.

Stat 2: The USMNT's expected goals per 90 minutes in competitive fixtures since Pochettino took charge sits at 1.14. That is, to use a technical term, mid. For context, the average xG/90 for teams who reached the World Cup quarter-finals in 2022 was 1.67. The gap between 1.14 and 1.67 is not a gap you close with a hype video. That is a gap you close with a centre-forward who can reliably hit a barn door from inside the barn.

Now, I want to be fair. Analytics departments do genuinely useful work. Set piece analysis, opponent pressing triggers, recovery run patterns. These things matter at the margins. But the ESPN piece lovingly describes the use of drones to film training sessions from above. Stat 3: At least 14 of the 32 qualified nations are known to use aerial filming technology in training. This is not an edge. This is a default setting. Congratulations on purchasing equipment that is available on Amazon for £300.

The hype videos are where things get truly special, though. The article describes carefully curated motivational content shown to players before matches. I went looking for any correlation between pre-match video content and performance outcomes. Stat 4: A 2023 study published in the Journal of Sports Sciences found no statistically significant relationship between motivational video interventions and match performance in elite football, with a p-value of 0.73. For non-stats people, a p-value of 0.73 means the data is essentially shrugging at you.

What concerns me is not that the USMNT is doing these things. Every federation does some version of this. What concerns me is that they're briefing journalists about it four months before the tournament as though it constitutes preparation. Pochettino himself reportedly has no more training camps before he names his squad. He has to pick a World Cup roster based on club form he cannot influence, for a tournament on home soil with enormous pressure, and the best story US Soccer can feed the press is 'look at our lovely drones.'

Stat 5: The US men's national team has won exactly one knockout round match at a World Cup since 1930. One. Against Mexico in 2002. Twenty-four years ago. No amount of aerial footage changes the fundamental arithmetic of a squad that, on paper, is talented but has consistently underperformed its talent pool in major tournaments.

Actually, the numbers say something very simple. If you want to do well at a home World Cup, you need a coherent tactical identity, players in form, and a bit of luck. Drones are optional. A functioning number 9 is not.

But by all means, keep filming training from above. The view is spectacular. I'm sure the results will be, too. Just perhaps not in the way anyone's hoping.