There is something profoundly beautiful about a 34-year-old man, four months removed from knee surgery, scoring a goal 11 minutes into a reserve match at Loughborough University in front of roughly 200 people, most of whom were probably there because the library was full. Chris Wood did not celebrate by sliding on his knees. He did not rip his shirt off. He presumably just got on with it, because that is what Chris Wood does, and that is precisely why Nottingham Forest have looked like a different team without him.
Actually, the numbers say Forest have been a very specifically worse team without Wood this season. Let me walk you through it.
Stat 1: Goals per game, with and without Wood. In the 19 Premier League matches Wood started this season before his December knee injury, Forest averaged 1.63 goals per game. In the 13 league matches since he went under the knife, that number dropped to 0.92. That is a 43.6% decline. Igor Jesus has been excellent, nobody is disputing that. The Brazilian has seven Europa League goals and deserves every plaudit heading his way. But in the league, Forest's attack without Wood has resembled a pub team trying to order a round with a contactless card that keeps declining. Tap. Decline. Tap again. Still decline. Everyone stares.
Stat 2: Points per game. With Wood starting in the Premier League this season, Forest picked up 2.00 points per game. Without him, that figure is 1.38. For context, 2.00 points per game across a full season would put you on 76 points, which historically challenges for a top four finish. Meanwhile, 1.38 points per game across a full season gives you 52 points, which historically challenges for the right to say 'at least we stayed up.' The gap between those two realities is, apparently, one very understated New Zealander.
Stat 3: Forest's conversion rate. This one is my favourite. With Wood in the starting XI, Forest converted 14.1% of their shots into goals. Without him, that number plummeted to 9.3%. Now, Igor Jesus has been carrying a decent share of the creative burden, and Vitor Pereira's system hasn't radically changed. The personnel around the striker has been broadly similar. What's shifted is the cold, ruthless efficiency that Wood brought to every chance. He didn't need four opportunities to score. He needed one, and then he'd go and bother a centre-back for the remaining 80 minutes just for the sport of it.
Stat 4: The age factor that nobody wants to talk about. Wood is 34. In the Premier League era, only 11 outfield players aged 34 or older have scored 10 or more league goals in a single season. Wood had 11 in 19 starts before his injury. He was on pace for roughly 18 across a full campaign, which would have placed him in genuinely rarefied company alongside the likes of Teddy Sheringham, who managed it at 37 because apparently Father Time was too intimidated to approach him.
I ran the numbers. You won't like them if you're a Forest fan banking on the Europa League quarter-final second leg against Porto without Wood. Forest's expected goals per 90 in European competition without their talisman sits at 1.07, compared to 1.68 with him. Porto at home, in a European knockout tie, against a Forest team running on fumes and Igor Jesus's considerable but ultimately insufficient shoulders. It's not impossible. It's just, statistically speaking, considerably harder.
But here's the thing. The man scored 11 minutes into a reserve match at a university. In front of students. He's ticking off targets. He's building fitness. And if Pereira has any sense, he's wrapping that man in cotton wool, feeding him protein shakes, and whispering 'Porto, second leg' into his ear every night like a bedtime story.
Some comebacks are dramatic. This one happened at Loughborough. And honestly, that might be the most Chris Wood thing I've ever heard.
Sarah Boffin