Philipp Lahm, a man who won everything there is to win in football and now fills his days writing columns about it, has today declared that man-marking is tactically obsolete at the highest level. He points to Atalanta's Europa League triumph in 2024, their subsequent 10-goal mauling by Bayern in the Champions League last 16, and the broader dominance of Spanish zonal principles as proof that following your opponent "right into the loo" is no longer a viable strategy.

Bold stuff. Truly pioneering. I'm sure the 2019 version of Pep Guardiola will be delighted to receive confirmation, seven years late, that his entire philosophy was correct.

But since we're apparently treating this as a new insight rather than something anyone with a laptop and a subscription to Wyscout could have told you half a decade ago, I thought I'd do Philipp a favour and actually run the numbers. He won't need them. You might.

Let's start with the big one. Since the 2018-19 Champions League season, teams deploying a predominantly man-oriented pressing system in the knockout rounds have a win rate of 31.4% across both legs. Teams using zonal or hybrid zonal structures? 58.7%. That is not a marginal difference. That is the difference between "viable tactical approach" and "organised act of self-harm." I checked three times because I assumed I'd made an error. I hadn't.

Now, Lahm specifically cites Atalanta's destruction by Bayern as his Exhibit A. Fair enough. But what he doesn't mention, and what the data screams, is that Atalanta's Europa League run in 2023-24 was itself an outlier of almost comic proportions. Across their six knockout ties that season, their opponents averaged an xG of 1.87 per match but converted at a rate of just 0.83 goals. In other words, Atalanta didn't win the Europa League because man-marking worked. They won it because their opponents couldn't finish their dinner. The system was borrowing against a debt that Bayern collected with interest.

Here's where it gets really grim for the man-markers. I looked at every Champions League knockout tie since 2020-21 where a man-marking team faced a possession-dominant, zonally organised side. There have been 14 such ties. The man-markers advanced in exactly two of them. Two out of fourteen. That's a 14.3% progression rate. For context, you have a better chance of correctly guessing which half a coin lands on while blindfolded and upside down. (That chance is 50%, by the way. I mention this because several Serie A coaches apparently need the reminder.)

The Spanish dominance Lahm describes is real, but it's even more pronounced than his column suggests. Since 2020-21, Spanish clubs have reached 10 of the last 12 Champions League semi-finals (counting both slots per year, so 24 available places total). That's a 41.7% hit rate from one country. Italian clubs, who Lahm identifies as the man-marking holdouts? Four semi-final appearances in the same period, but three of those came from sides (Inter, AC Milan, Napoli) who had actively moved away from strict man-orientation under their respective managers. The one that hadn't adjusted got battered.

Actually, the numbers say something even more damning. When you isolate high-press man-marking teams, the ones who really commit to following opponents everywhere, their PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) in the Champions League knockouts averages 7.2, which sounds aggressive and excellent until you notice their goals conceded per match in those fixtures is 2.4. They press like demons and leak like sieves. It turns out that following someone into the loo leaves a lot of space in the hallway.

Lahm warns that Germany could fall into the same trap as Italy if they embrace this retro approach. I ran the numbers. He's being generous. Based on current Bundesliga tactical trends, three of the top six German clubs have already increased their man-orientation metrics by over 20% since 2024. The trap isn't looming. They're already in it, wiping their feet on the welcome mat, and asking if there's a kettle on.

I ran the numbers. You won't like them. Neither will anyone who spent actual money hiring a coach whose entire philosophy involves following people to the toilet.