Terry Tap-In Says Rosenior Activated "The Curse" but the Real Curse Is What This Means for the Enzo-to-Bayern Rumour Nobody's Talking About

Terry Tap-In wrote that Liam Rosenior has "activated the curse" by uttering the dreaded "it's not what people think" about Enzo Fernandez, and yes, fine, it's a funny piece, very entertaining, lots of italics. But while Terry was busy cataloguing vibes and calling Rosenior a "press conference angel," I was doing something rather less poetic and rather more useful. I was opening a spreadsheet.

You see, Terry's article correctly identifies that the phrase never turns out to be true. What it fails to do, with respect, is ask the follow-up question: if it's always what people think, then what exactly do people think? And here is where I must make the tenuous but, I would argue, statistically defensible connection to the Bayern Munich transfer rumour that has been quietly percolating in the German press since mid-March.

I maintain a database. I know. Shocking behaviour for a data analyst. Since 2014, I have logged 41 instances of a Premier League manager deploying some variant of "it's not what people think" or "the situation isn't as it seems" about a specific named player. Of those 41, 30 resulted in the player leaving the club within two transfer windows. That is 73.2%. The sample size is not enormous, but it is not nothing, and I will fight anyone who says otherwise, politely, with footnotes.

Of the remaining 11 cases, four involved players who were already injured and couldn't be sold, three involved contractual complications that delayed rather than prevented a move, and four genuinely did turn out to be nothing. Four. Out of 41. A 9.8% chance that Rosenior is telling the truth. I am not a gambling woman, but I wouldn't stake my mortgage on those odds.

Now. Bayern Munich. Their sporting director was photographed at a restaurant in London on 28 March. The German outlet Kicker ran a speculative piece on 31 March suggesting Bayern are "monitoring midfield options with Premier League experience." Enzo Fernandez has Premier League experience. Enzo Fernandez plays midfield. I am simply connecting dots. The dots may not wish to be connected. The dots have not consented. But the dots are sitting suspiciously close together.

There is also the matter of Enzo's minutes. He has started 19 of Chelsea's 30 league matches this season, which sounds perfectly normal until you notice the trend line. His starts have decreased in each of the last three months: seven in January, six in February, four in March. If you plot that on a graph, it looks like the trajectory of a paper aeroplane thrown by someone who doesn't believe in paper aeroplanes. Downward. Conclusively.

Does this prove Enzo is going to Bayern Munich? No. Obviously not. I am a scientist, not a clairvoyant. But it does suggest that when Terry gleefully observed Rosenior had activated "the curse," he somewhat undersold the situation. The curse is not merely that the manager is lying. The curse, historically, is that the manager is lying because someone is leaving.

Rosenior said it isn't what people think. The data says it almost certainly is. And what people think, based on restaurant sightings, declining minutes, and one very suggestive Kicker article, is Bayern.

I'll update the spreadsheet accordingly.