Sarah Boffin's "Favourites Tag" Numbers Are Spot On and I Hate That I'm Saying This

Right. I need to sit down for this one. Maybe pour something strong. Sarah Boffin wrote that teams who refuse the favourites tag in Champions League knockouts get battered at a rate of 58.5%, and I spent a good hour trying to find a hole in it. Couldn't. Not one. The spreadsheet merchant has only gone and done proper journalism.

I know. I'm as shocked as you are.

Look. I have spent 40 years in football telling anyone who will listen that false modesty is a cancer on the game. I managed clubs where we were clear favourites and I said so. You know what happened? My players walked out knowing they were expected to win. They played like it. None of this "oh, they're a great team, we're just happy to be here" nonsense that PSG are currently spouting about Liverpool.

The numbers back me up. 58.5% elimination rate for the humble merchants versus 43% for teams that just told the truth. That is a fifteen percentage point gap. In statistical terms that is not a quirk. That is a pattern. That is a flashing neon sign saying STOP BEING SO WET.

Now here is where I go further than Boffin. She has given you the what. Let me give you the why. Because I have actually been in those dressing rooms.

When a manager stands in front of the cameras and says "we are not favourites," that message does not stay at the press conference. It seeps into the squad. Players hear it. And what do they hear? They hear their own gaffer saying the other lot might be better. That is not humility. That is doubt dressed up in a suit.

Brian Clough never refused a favourites tag in his life. Neither did Ferguson. Neither did Mourinho in his pomp. You think Bob Paisley stood there before a European Cup final going "oh gosh, we are just delighted to participate"? Do me a favour.

PSG have got better players than Liverpool on paper. They have got home advantage in the first leg. The bookmakers have them as favourites. The coefficient says favourites. Their wage bill screams favourites. And yet there they are, doing the whole "oh no, Liverpool are wonderful" routine like a contestant on Bake Off complimenting someone else's sponge before the judging.

Slot will see right through it. He is not daft. But more importantly, PSG's own players will feel it. There will be a seed of hesitation. A fraction of a second slower pressing. A slight reluctance to take responsibility in the big moments. Because if your own manager has told the world you are not expected to win, why stick your neck out?

I have said this for decades and been called a dinosaur for it. Now Boffin has gone and proved it with a spreadsheet. The one time I actually wanted to disagree with the data crowd and they have pulled the rug from under me.

PSG will lose this tie. Not because Liverpool are better. Not because of tactics or VAR or any of that. Because PSG's entire pre match messaging has told their own squad it is acceptable to lose.

58.5%. Remember that number. Boffin earned her keep this week. Do not tell her I said that.