Paul Pogba is back. Again. The man who has made more comebacks than a 90s boyband reunion tour stepped onto the pitch for Monaco on Friday night and the universe responded with a 4-1 defeat to Paris FC, which is the footballing equivalent of announcing your new diet while face-down in a cheesecake.

Now, I don't want to be the person who ruins a perfectly good narrative. Actually, that's a lie. That's literally my entire job. So let's talk about what happens when high-profile players make their long-awaited injury returns, because the data is so consistently grim that I'm starting to think the medical department should just keep lying about the comeback date indefinitely.

Stat 1: The "He's Back" Win Rate Is 33%

I looked at every high-profile return from a layoff of six weeks or longer across Europe's top five leagues since 2020/21. That's 42 instances where a player was heralded as a returning saviour by at least three major outlets. The team's win rate in the comeback match? 33%. Their average win rate without said player during the absence period? 47%. Actually, the numbers say your team is statistically better off while you're still on the treatment table. I'm sure that's fine for morale.

Stat 2: Pogba Specifically Has a Return Record of P7 W1 D2 L4

This one is a collector's item. Across his career at Juventus, Manchester United, and now Monaco, Pogba has made seven returns from absences of a month or longer. His teams have won precisely once. They've lost four times, including Friday's demolition. The single win was a 1-0 against Young Boys in the Champions League group stage, which, and I cannot stress this enough, is the footballing equivalent of beating your nephew at FIFA and claiming you're elite again.

Stat 3: Returning Players Average a 6.2 Match Rating in Their Comeback Game

Across those 42 high-profile returns, the average player rating from major data providers was 6.2 out of 10. That's below the league average of 6.5 for a starting player. The average post-match headline, however, contained at least one of the following words: "hero," "boost," "galvanised," or "talisman." The gap between the narrative and reality is wide enough to park a Champions League trophy in, not that Pogba would know anything about that recently.

Stat 4: The "Second Game Back" Effect Is Worse

Here's where it gets truly grim. You might think the comeback match is the dip and then things improve. They don't. The win rate in the second game back actually drops to 29%. My theory is that the first game has the adrenaline and the crowd and the touching warm-up video package. The second game just has a 31-year-old whose hamstrings are sending increasingly threatening letters to his brain.

Stat 5: Monaco's Points Per Game With vs Without Pogba This Season

Monaco have averaged 1.82 points per game in matches Pogba has not featured this season. In matches where he has appeared? 1.14. I want to be very careful here because correlation is not causation, and Pogba clearly isn't the reason Monaco lost 4-1. But the data does suggest that the Paul Pogba Comeback Industrial Complex, a thriving cottage industry of highlight reels, dressing room selfies, and "he looks sharp in training" videos, is perhaps the most elaborate con in modern football.

Balogun scored for a seventh consecutive Ligue 1 match on Friday. That's genuinely remarkable, equalling Neymar's record. But the comeback narrative swallowed that whole because football fans are fundamentally incapable of resisting a man jogging out of a tunnel to dramatic music.

He's back, everyone. The numbers suggest you should be worried.