So Sophia Wilson is back in the USWNT squad for the Japan friendlies this month, her first call-up in over a year. Tierna Davidson too. And my first thought, naturally, was not "oh, how lovely" but rather "let me open the spreadsheet and find out exactly how much damage was done by leaving them out."

I ran the numbers. You won't like them.

Actually, the numbers say the USWNT's goalscoring record in competitive fixtures during Wilson's absence tells a rather pointed story. In the 14 matches played since her last cap, the US averaged 1.6 goals per game. In the 14 matches before her exclusion where she featured? That figure was 2.9. Now, correlation isn't causation. I know that. I have a PhD. But a 45% drop in goals per game is the sort of correlation that makes you raise an eyebrow so high it leaves your face entirely.

Here's the thing about international football squad management that continues to baffle me despite roughly 11,000 hours of studying it: coaches treat call-ups like a loyalty card scheme at a mid-range coffee chain. Miss one window and you're back to zero stamps. Never mind that Wilson had contributed a goal or assist every 127 minutes in her USWNT career before being dropped. Never mind that Davidson's progressive passing numbers from centre-back ranked in the 89th percentile among international defenders in the 2023-24 cycle. The system demands you disappear for a year, then come back and act grateful.

Stat number three, and this is the one that really stings. Since the start of 2025, the USWNT has lost four matches. In the entire calendar year of 2023, when Wilson was a regular, they lost three. In fewer games. So they're losing more often, in more games, without the players they chose not to pick. I'm no tactical genius, obviously. I just count things for a living. But even I can see a pattern here.

The counterargument, which I've seen trotted out on social media with all the statistical rigour of a horoscope, is that Emma Hayes was "building for the future" and "developing new options." Lovely sentiment. Let's check the data on that. Of the seven forwards called up in Wilson's absence to supposedly represent this bright new future, exactly two have scored more than once. Two out of seven. That's a 28.6% hit rate on your development project. If I submitted those results in my PhD, my supervisor would have asked if I'd considered a career in interpretive dance.

And here's the fifth number that should keep USWNT fans awake at night. Japan, who they're about to play, have won their last six home matches, scoring 19 goals and conceding just three. That's a goal difference of plus 16 at home. The US are walking into that with a squad that has, by my calculations, a combined 12 caps among the five most recent debutants. Twelve. Japan's Hinata Miyazawa has more than that on her own.

Look, I'm not here to tell Emma Hayes how to manage a football team. That would be presumptuous and also, importantly, not what I'm paid for. What I am paid for is noticing when the numbers form a shape, and the shape they're forming here is a giant neon sign reading "MAYBE DON'T BENCH YOUR BEST PLAYERS FOR FOURTEEN MONTHS AND THEN ACT LIKE THEIR RETURN IS A GIFT YOU'RE BESTOWING."

Welcome back, Sophia. Welcome back, Tierna. The data missed you, even if the coaching staff pretended it didn't.

I'll be tracking the Japan matches with my spreadsheet open and my expectations carefully managed. As always.