Right. So Real Madrid drew 1-1 with Girona on Thursday night, and Álvaro Arbeloa, a man whose entire punditry career appears to be an elaborate audition for the role of Professional Victim, went on television to say that his former club should have been awarded a "decisive penalty." The implication, as always with Madrid, is that the referees are somehow conspiring against the most successful club in the history of European football. The thirteen-time Champions League winners. The poor, downtrodden lambs.

I ran the numbers. You won't like them. Well, Álvaro won't like them. The rest of you might find them quite therapeutic.

Stat 1: Real Madrid have been awarded 9 penalties in La Liga this season. That's joint-top in the division alongside Barcelona, through 31 matchdays. The league average is 4.7. Madrid are getting penalties at nearly double the rate of the average La Liga club. They are, statistically speaking, the last club in Spain who should be complaining about not getting decisions. And yet here we are, with Arbeloa on camera doing the facial expression of a man who's found a parking ticket on his Lamborghini.

Stat 2: Since the start of 2019-20, Real Madrid have been awarded 68 La Liga penalties. That's the most in the division over that period. More than Barcelona (61). More than Atlético (53). More than everyone. If penalty decisions were a currency, Madrid would be running Spain's central bank. But one doesn't go their way against Girona and suddenly it's a miscarriage of justice.

Stat 3: Mbappé's penalty conversion rate this season is 71.4%. He's missed two of seven from the spot in La Liga. For context, the average conversion rate for regular penalty takers across Europe's top five leagues is around 76%. So even if Madrid had been given this supposedly decisive penalty, there was roughly a one-in-four chance Mbappé would have ballooned it into Row Z anyway. I'm not saying that undermines the entire grievance, but I am writing it down and putting it on the internet.

Stat 4: Madrid have dropped points in 8 La Liga matches this season. In those 8 matches, their average xG (expected goals) is 1.43. The problem isn't referees. The problem is that in the matches where it matters most, Madrid's attack has been roughly as clinical as a butter knife. Their shot conversion rate in drawn matches this season is 7.2%, compared to 14.1% in matches they've won. They don't need more penalties. They need to finish the chances they already create.

Actually, the numbers say something even more damning. Stat 5: In their last 10 La Liga seasons, Madrid have had a net penalty advantage (penalties for minus penalties against) of +31. That means over a decade, they've received 31 more penalties than their opponents have. Thirty-one. That's not a slight edge. That's an entire geological stratum of favourable decisions.

But Arbeloa didn't mention any of that, did he? No. He mentioned the one that got away. Because that's the Madrid way. You could give them 99 penalties out of 100 and the press conference after the missed one would sound like a UN tribunal.

Look, maybe it was a penalty. I've seen the replay. It's debatable. Most penalty shouts are. But the framing, the outrage, the theatrical indignation from a club that has benefited from more spot-kick generosity than any team in Spain over the last decade, is genuinely one of the funniest things I've seen this season. And I watched Pogba come back from injury only to lose 4-1.

The title race is tight. Madrid are under pressure. And when Madrid are under pressure, the playbook is always the same: blame the referee, imply conspiracy, and hope nobody checks the spreadsheet.

I checked the spreadsheet.