Harry Kane practised on Monday. He is 'expected to be available' for Bayern Munich's Champions League quarterfinal first leg against Real Madrid on Tuesday. The football world exhaled. Bayern fans unclenched. Pundits nodded sagely and said things like 'massive boost' and 'changes everything.'

Actually, the numbers say 'available' is one of the most dangerous words in football.

I went back through every Champions League knockout tie since 2018/19 and tracked every instance where a key striker was reported as 'available' or 'expected to be fit' within 48 hours of a quarterfinal or later. There were 34 such cases. Here is what the data actually shows, and I promise you it is bleak.

Stat 1: The 'Available' Discount. Of those 34 strikers declared 'available' before a knockout match, only 14 (41.2%) completed the full 90 minutes. Twelve were substituted before the 75th minute. Eight failed to register a single shot on target. The word 'available' apparently means 'physically present on the same continent as the stadium and willing to put on shorts.'

Stat 2: The xG Collapse. This is where it gets properly grim. Strikers who were subject to pre-match fitness doubt and then started anyway averaged 0.19 xG per 90 in those knockout matches. The same players' season average? 0.58 xG per 90. That is a 67.2% drop. They are not the same player. They are wearing the same shirt, running in roughly the same direction, but the output is that of a man who has been asked to do his job while someone periodically hits him in the thigh with a rolling pin.

Stat 3: The Substitution Curse. Of the 12 'available' strikers who were hauled off before the 75th minute, their teams won just three of those matches (25%). When the same strikers started fully fit knockout games, their teams won 52.4% of the time. Rushing back a half-fit striker does not add a weapon. It removes one and wastes a substitution.

Stat 4: Kane, Specifically. Harry Kane has played 11 Champions League knockout matches in his career where there was any reported fitness concern in the week before. His record in those games: three goals, two assists, but an average match rating (per FBRef) of 6.2. In knockout games where he was undisputedly fit? 7.4 average rating, and his pressing numbers jump by over 30%. The version of Kane that Bayern need, the one who drops deep, links play, bullies centre-backs, and presses like a man who has been personally offended by the opposition's build-up, that version requires two functioning legs operating at full capacity, not 'available' capacity.

Stat 5: The Real Madrid Factor. Here is the particularly cruel part. Real Madrid have faced a 'returning from fitness doubt' striker in Champions League knockouts six times since 2018. They have won five of those ties. Madrid are forensically good at identifying a striker who is moving at 85% and adjusting accordingly. They compact the space, they let the not-quite-fit forward have the ball in areas where it does not hurt, and they wait. They are very, very patient predators.

I am not saying Kane should not play. I am saying that the breathless relief of 'Kane is available!' deserves approximately the same level of scrutiny as 'the flight is only delayed by 45 minutes' or 'the builder says he'll definitely be done by Friday.'

Available is not fit. Fit is not sharp. Sharp is not ready for a Champions League quarterfinal against a team that has won this competition more times than most clubs have won a league cup.

I ran the numbers. You won't like them. Neither, I suspect, will Bayern Munich at roughly the 68th minute on Tuesday evening.