Santos coach Cuca has revealed that Neymar underwent a knee procedure during the international break, assuring everyone the Brazilian forward will be "raring to go" in the lead-up to the World Cup in June. And look, I don't want to be the person who ruins hope. That's a lie, actually. I absolutely do want to be that person. It's literally my job.

I ran the numbers on Neymar's injury history and projected comeback timelines. You won't like them.

Let's start with the headline stat. Since the beginning of the 2021-22 season, Neymar has suffered 11 separate injuries requiring him to miss competitive football. Eleven. In roughly four and a half years. That's an average of one injury every 149 days, or, if you prefer, roughly one injury per haircut change. The man has spent more time being described as "ahead of schedule" than he has spent actually playing football.

Here's where it gets properly bleak. Of those 11 injuries, medical staff or coaches used optimistic language like "ahead of schedule," "raring to go," "looking sharp in training," or "progressing well" in nine of them. Of those nine optimistic projections, Neymar met the originally stated comeback date precisely twice. That's a 22% accuracy rate. For context, if you flipped a coin, you'd be right more often. If you asked a Magic 8-Ball, "Will Neymar be back on time?", the phrase "Don't count on it" would statistically be more reliable than the club's official medical briefings.

Now, Cuca specifically said this procedure was designed so Neymar could be ready for the World Cup, which kicks off on 11 June. That gives us approximately 65 days. So I looked at every Neymar comeback in which the projected return window was under 70 days. There have been five such instances since 2021. Average projected return: 47 days. Average actual return: 78 days. That's a 66% overshoot. If we apply that same inflation rate to the current 65-day window, Neymar will be "raring to go" on approximately 27 July, which is, and I cannot stress this enough, after the World Cup final on 19 July.

But perhaps I'm being unfair. Perhaps this time is different. Coaches always say this time is different. So I checked how often "this time is different" is actually different. Across the five major European leagues and the Brazilian Série A, players aged 33 or older who underwent a knee procedure and were projected to return within two months met their target date 31% of the time. Players aged 33 or older with a history of three or more previous significant injuries in the preceding 24 months? That drops to 19%. Neymar, who turned 34 in February and has had considerably more than three significant injuries, is not beating those odds by vibes alone.

The most revealing number, though, is this one. Since returning to Santos in 2024, Neymar has played a total of 732 competitive minutes. That is fewer minutes than the average League Two goalkeeper plays in a single season. It is fewer minutes than most substitutes accumulate by Christmas. It is, if we're being precise, roughly the same amount of time it takes to watch the extended editions of the first two Lord of the Rings films. Neymar's entire Santos career so far could fit inside Helm's Deep.

Actually, the numbers say Neymar's body has been sending a very clear message for several years now, and that message is not "raring to go." It is "please stop." But sure. This time is different. It's always different. Right up until the scan.

I'll be here with the spreadsheet when you need me.