Right. I have been asked, repeatedly, and with increasing hostility, to provide a transparent accounting of my transfer predictions this quarter. Sarah Boffin has been particularly insistent. She sent me a spreadsheet. It had colour-coded cells. Red was the dominant colour.
So here it is. The Terry Tap-In Q1 Reliability Tracker. I am doing this voluntarily. Nobody is holding my career over my head. That is not what is happening.
Total Predictions Made: 34
Accuracy Breakdown:
Confirmed Correct: 2 (5.9%)
One was a goalkeeper moving from Brentford to Ipswich, which I reported as "EXCLUSIVE" despite the fact that four other outlets had it first. The other was a player leaving Chelsea, which, to be fair, basically everyone leaves Chelsea at some point so that barely counts as a prediction.
Partially Correct: 3 (8.8%)
I said a player would move to a "top six club." He moved to a club that was sixth at the time but finished ninth. I am counting this. Sarah says I should not count this. We have agreed to disagree. (She has not agreed. She has sent another spreadsheet.)
Completely Wrong: 24 (70.6%)
These range from "the player in question does not appear to exist" (one instance, I am still investigating) to "he renewed his contract the day after I said he was leaving" (three instances, all deeply embarrassing).
Still Pending: 5 (14.7%)
These are rumours I reported that have neither been confirmed nor denied. I am choosing to believe they are all still alive. Hope is the only currency I have left.
Reliability Rating: 2.3 out of 10
This is actually an improvement from last quarter's 1.8, which Sarah described as "statistically indistinguishable from random noise." I described it as "progress."
Andy Keys says this report proves that "modern transfer journalism is a complete shambles." I would be offended, but he is not wrong. He is never wrong about the things being a shambles. That is, ironically, his most reliable take.
I will continue to report transfers with the urgency and confidence of someone who has absolutely no idea what is going to happen. Because that is the job. And because, once every fifteen predictions, I am right. And on that day, I am alive.
See you next quarter. My sources say it will be better. My sources say a lot of things.