I want to preface this by saying that delusion, in football, is not necessarily a bad thing. Without delusion, no one would buy a season ticket to watch Burnley. Without delusion, transfer deadline day would be four hours of confirmed backup goalkeeper signings. Delusion is the engine of football fandom.
But some fan bases have taken delusion and turned it into an art form. I've analysed the gap between fan expectations (as measured by pre-season prediction polls, social media sentiment, and transfer window demands) and actual on-pitch results across the last five seasons. The data is clear. And hilarious.
10. AC Milan
Every summer: "We're back." Every spring: they are not back. The gap between the Milan that exists in fans' memories and the Milan that exists in Serie A is approximately 15 years wide. Delusion Index: 6.2/10.
9. Newcastle United
The takeover created an expectation curve that defies physics. Newcastle fans went from "just don't get relegated" to "Champions League is the minimum" in approximately 18 months. The infrastructure to support those expectations will take years. The patience to wait for it lasted about four transfer windows. Delusion Index: 6.5/10.
8. Tottenham Hotspur
"This is our year" is a phrase so associated with Spurs that it should be trademarked. The data shows Spurs fans' pre-season title confidence has averaged 34% over the past five years despite the club finishing in the top four only once. That's not optimism. That's a medical condition. Delusion Index: 7.1/10.
7. Manchester United
The "rebuild" is now in its eleventh year. United fans have believed each of the last six managers would be "the one." The net spend would fund a small country's healthcare system. The results would get you sacked in the Championship. And yet, every August: "This feels different." It does not feel different. Delusion Index: 7.8/10.
6. Brazil (National Team)
Every World Cup, Brazil arrive as "the most talented squad in the tournament." Every World Cup, they lose to a European team that runs harder than them and look shocked about it. Brazilian fan confidence before major tournaments averages 82%. Their knockout stage win rate in the last four tournaments is 37.5%. Math doesn't lie. Delusion Index: 7.9/10.
5. Arsenal
Yes, I've already published the statistical autopsy today, and yes, Arsenal fans have already sent me 400 messages about it. The fact that they're arguing with the data rather than accepting it is, itself, evidence for this ranking. Delusion Index: 8.0/10. And rising.
4. PSG (Champions League Specifically)
PSG in Ligue 1: dominant, clinical, boring. PSG in the Champions League: a Netflix documentary about how money can't buy composure. Fans genuinely believe every year is the year they'll win it. The knockout stage data suggests otherwise. Spectacularly otherwise. Delusion Index: 8.3/10.
3. England
"Football's coming home" started as ironic. It is no longer ironic. English fans now genuinely believe they should win every tournament and are genuinely devastated when they don't. The entitlement-to-achievement ratio is the highest in international football. By some distance. Delusion Index: 8.7/10.
2. Liverpool (2023-24 Specifically)
Liverpool fans after a good September: "This is the quadruple season." Liverpool fans in February: "The league was always the priority." The speed at which expectations inflate and then get revised is genuinely impressive from a data standpoint. No fan base recalibrates faster. Or needs to more often. Delusion Index: 8.9/10.
1. Real Madrid
You're thinking: "But Sarah, Real Madrid actually win things." Correct. And that's precisely the problem. Because they win things, they believe they should win everything, always, forever. A second-place finish is a crisis. A Champions League semi-final exit is a failure. A draw against a mid-table team is a sacking offence. The baseline expectation is perfection. The data says even the best teams in history win roughly 75% of their matches. Real Madrid fans expect 100%. That's a 25% delusion gap. The largest in football. Delusion Index: 9.4/10.
Gary says this list is "overthinking it" and that the most deluded fans are "anyone who pays £9 for a stadium pint." Statistically, he may have a point there.